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☆ Swelling US debt could tip US markets into crisis as soon as next year, Wharton professor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Market chaos could come next year if the US doesn't adjust its fiscal path, Joao Gomes told CNBC. The US can't afford to extend tax cuts next year, he said. If it doesn't adjust its fiscal trajectory soon, 2025 could be the year when markets start to roil, Wharton professor Joao Gomes warned. "That's something that could definitely happen to us next year," Gomes told CNBC on Thursday. "I think we'll have a serious debate next year about the tax cuts and whether to extend them or not," he said.

Persons: Joao Gomes, Wharton, —, It's, Gomes, Maya MacGuineas, Gomes isn't, Jamie Dimon, Ken Griffin Organizations: CNBC, US, Service, Bank of America, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Trump Administration, White House, Federal, Wall Locations: roil

☆ JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon says the US is addicted to debt, and it's created a dangerous sugar high in the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

America's debt problem has caused a dangerous sugar high for the economy, Jamie Dimon said. The JPMorgan chief pointed to the enormous surge of new debt taken on during the pandemic. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe US is practically addicted to debt – and that's put the economy in a dangerous position, according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. The rest of the global economy is also staring at a "cocktail" of risks, Dimon added.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, —, that's, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, Global Investment Summit, Penn Wharton Budget Locations: London

☆ Are US Treasurys still a safe-haven asset? An epic bond-market crash and rising default fears are sowing doubts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Financial markets have been engaged in a growing debate over the risks that lurk in Treasurys, with prominent voices raising doubts. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn March, a Richard Bernstein Advisors note said spreads on credit default swaps have climbed for Treasurys since since 2011, when the federal government was issued its first credit downgrade. Then came this spring's debt-ceiling drama and the US credit downgrade in August from Fitch, which cited the rising debt burden and political dysfunction. If a downgrade follows, then US debt wouldn't be in the safest category for default risk at any of the three major ratings agencies. Several auctions for long-dated Treasurys have seen weak demand, and buyers are demanding higher compensation for the risk of carrying Treasurys.

Persons: —, Moody's, they've, Mohamed El, Erian, Asset's Seema Shah, Treasurys, Richard Bernstein, Gennadiy Goldberg isn't Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Dallas Federal, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Fitch, Penn Wharton Budget, Securities Locations: Treasurys, there's, US

☆ America’s Debt Crisis Burns While Congress Fiddles
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +9 min

Last month, the Penn Wharton Budget Model from the University of Pennsylvania came out with an analysis of the debt crisis entitled “When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?”Their answer? The concern is that punting the problem into the future, continuing to raise debt even as interest rates rise further or hold at higher levels for longer, the debt will grow even faster in a “snowball” scenario. Similar proposals have been offered over the years but at the same time they seem to lack political support – indeed, Republicans have recently voiced the idea of cutting Social Security. The debt crisis is rapidly worsening at a time when the bond market is having its own set of problems. A recent government auction of debt, an occurrence that is becoming more common as the U.S. borrows more, saw weak demand.

Persons: Dick Cheney, Richard Neal, Democrats –, Blu Putnam, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Jerome Powell, ”, Gene Steuerle, Richard B, Fisher, probity, Kevin McCarthy, Kent Smetters, Boettner, Smetters, Richard Robis, Donald Trump Organizations: Capitol, Democratic, Massachusetts, The New York Times, Federal Reserve, Partisans, Democrats, Fed, CME Group, Social Security, Medicare, Urban Institute, California Rep, Penn Wharton Budget, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wharton, Social, Republicans, Treasury, Hamas, BCA Research, White House Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Japan, Israel

☆ Green energy’s tailwinds blow the other way
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Falling costs, cheap capital and supportive politicians helped propel a headlong rush into renewable power. As relations with China deteriorate, the United States and Europe are increasingly concerned about the country’s grip on parts of the green energy supply chain. In recent roundtable discussions moderated by Breakingviews on both sides of the Atlantic, participants expressed optimism about the momentum of investment in green energy. The IRA has unleashed a green energy boom. The world can ill afford to relax its embrace of green power.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, –, Joe Biden’s, Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Breakingviews, carmaker Ford, Rishi Sunak’s, Pennsylvania’s Penn, George Hay, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Britain's, Downing, Reuters, Global, International Energy Agency, International Renewable Energy Agency, Energy, Commission, Applied Innovation, Goldman, Amperex Technology, Companies, British, MIT’s Center for Energy, Environmental, Research, University, Pennsylvania’s, Thomson Locations: London, Ukraine, U.S, China, United States, Europe, People’s Republic, Vietnam, Mexico

☆ U.S. National Debt Tops $33 Trillion for First Time
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Alan Rappeport | More About Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But the debt is on track to top $50 trillion by the end of the decade, even after newly passed spending cuts are taken into account, as interest on the debt mounts and the cost of the nation’s social safety net programs keeps growing. But slowing the growth of the national debt continues to be daunting. Some federal spending programs that passed during the Biden administration are expected to be more costly than previously projected. At the same time, several of President Biden’s attempts to raise more revenue through tax changes have been met with resistance. The policy was projected to raise about $8 billion in additional tax revenue over a decade.

Persons: Biden, University of Pennsylvania’s Penn, Biden’s Organizations: University of Pennsylvania’s, Budget, Internal Revenue Service

☆ Analysis Says Biden’s New Student Debt Plan Could Cost $475 Billion
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Stacy Cowley | More About Stacy Cowley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden’s new repayment plan for federal student loans will cost the government $475 billion over the next decade, according to a new economic projection. The updated income-driven repayment plan would surpass the $400 billion cost of the debt forgiveness plan that the Supreme Court rejected last month. But a new and revised plan, which the administration has named Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, is vastly more generous. That means the government, not borrowers, will ultimately pay a bigger share of the recipients’ educational costs. Economists for the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan research group, estimate that payment reductions in the $1.6 trillion in outstanding federal student loans will cost the government $200 billion.

Persons: Biden’s, —, University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Organizations: Education Department, Valuable Education, University of Pennsylvania’s, Budget

☆ Analysis: Biden's IRA climate bill won't cut deficit as expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Jarrett Renshaw | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

The White House estimated, and independent budget analysts agreed, it could cut the deficit by $300 billion over the next decade. The tax credits have been massively popular with companies, spurring new investments and boosting job growth, environmental benefits -- and the price tag. The bill will add $750 billion to the nation’s deficit over ten years, according to Smetters. White House officials say revenue will outpace original congressional estimates, and they point to the millions of jobs the IRA is expected to create. “We’re going to have more deployment and achieve more emissions reductions than we initially thought,” the White House official said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, ”, Kent Smetters, Goldman Sachs, Joe Manchin, Manchin, we've, Joe Biden’s, Tesla, Smetters, ” Smetters, “ We’re, Merck, Jarrett Renshaw, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: White House, Penn Wharton Budget Model, White, Congressional, Credit Suisse, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, U.S, Democrat, Credit, Office, University of Pennsylvania, European Union, EV, Biden, Republicans, CBO, Amazon, Pepsi, Home, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - The bipartisan debt-ceiling deal that could clear Congress as soon as Thursday would stave off an imminent U.S. default, but might deliver less budget savings than Republicans have hoped for, according to nonpartisan budget analysts. The agreement ensures that President Joe Biden will not have to grapple with another debt-ceiling showdown until after the November 2024 election. That is less than the $4.8 trillion Republicans had initially sought, but still the largest deficit-reduction package since a 2011 deal that emerged from a similar debt-ceiling showdown. That would put more $1 trillion of the deal's anticipated savings at risk, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a research group. The deal increases spending on defense and veterans' care, even as it aims to clamp down on other discretionary programs.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, MacGuineas, Biden, Veronique de Rugy, George Mason University's, Penn Wharton, McCarthy, Emily Gee, Andy Sullivan, Scott Malone, Alistair Bell Organizations: Penn Wharton Budget, White, Internal, Service, Office, Republican, SNAP, Social Security, Center for American, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ Meet a new mom with $90,000 in student debt who's tired of 'the unfair game' of Biden's loan forgiveness: 'We need this fix'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

She would qualify for the full $20,000 amount of Biden's broad student-debt relief plan. Alexandria Mavin, 33, has $90,000 in student debt. A common thread among opponents of the debt relief plan is that it's unfair to those who have already paid off their loans, or funded their higher educations on their own. "It's crazy to see with just this one student loan being gone, how much financial freedom I'm finding just from one measly $400-a-month student loan," she added. But when it's 45 million people," Mavin said, referring to the number of Americans with student debt, "that's a scam."

☆ Biden's plan to forgive student loans could end up costing over $1 trillion, an analysis says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-05 | by ( Grace Dean | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Biden's plan to forgive student loans could cost more than $1 trillion, per an analysis. Under the plan, around 20 million borrowers would eligible to have their full debt wiped out. The plan also included extending student loan forbearance to the end of the year, which the model estimates would cost another $16 billion. That additional $520 billion would take the total costs of the student loan forgiveness plan to over $1 trillion, Wharton said. Americans currently have a collective student loan debt of around $1.6 trillion, per federal data.

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